Donald Trump’s lawsuit against Ann Selzer accuses the Iowa pollster of consumer fraud and election interference over a Des Moines Register poll published three days before the 2024 election that showed Kamala Harris leading in Iowa by three points. Trump went on to win the state by 13. The case, filed in December 2024, is now pending in Polk County District Court after a detour through federal court, and a nearly identical class action brought by a Register subscriber was dismissed with prejudice in November 2025 on First Amendment grounds.
The Poll Behind the Lawsuit
On November 2, 2024, the Des Moines Register published Selzer & Company’s final Iowa Poll of the presidential race. The survey of 808 likely voters, conducted October 28–31, showed Harris ahead of Trump 47% to 44%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 points.1Des Moines Register. Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris Leads Donald Trump in 2024 Presidential Race Other polls at the time showed Trump ahead in Iowa by seven to nine points.2FIRE. Trump v. Selzer Motion and Brief in Support of Motion to Dismiss
Trump carried Iowa 56% to 43%. The total forecasting error was roughly 16 points, which Selzer herself called a “big miss.”3Center for Politics. The 2024 Iowa Poll for President: A Cautionary Tale4The Guardian. Iowa Pollster J. Ann Selzer Quits A post-election review by the Register found that the poll used minimal demographic weighting, and that reweighting by recalled 2020 vote would have produced a closer, though still off, result. Selzer, who had run the Iowa Poll since 1987 and previously held a top rating from analyst Nate Silver, announced her retirement from election polling later that month; she and the Register said the decision predated the miss.5CNN. Iowa Pollster Ann Selzer to Retire
What Trump’s Lawsuit Alleges
Trump filed suit on December 16, 2024, in Polk County, Iowa, naming Selzer, Selzer & Company, the Des Moines Register, and its parent Gannett as defendants.6Civil Rights Litigation Clearinghouse. Trump v. Selzer The complaint characterizes the Iowa Poll as “brazen election interference” and alleges violations of the Iowa Consumer Fraud Act.7Iowa Capital Dispatch. Trump Moves His Lawsuit Against Register and Its Pollster From Federal Court to State Court The theory: Selzer and the newspaper intentionally produced a misleading poll to energize Democratic voters in the closing days of the campaign.
Plaintiffs point to the poll’s gap from other surveys, a third-party “PollFair” reweighting of Selzer’s data that showed a six-point Trump lead, and the eventual 16-point miss as evidence of intentional manipulation.2FIRE. Trump v. Selzer Motion and Brief in Support of Motion to Dismiss8Des Moines Register. Miller-Meeks, Zaun Join Trump Lawsuit Over Iowa Poll
The Defense
The Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) represents Selzer pro bono, with chief counsel Robert Corn-Revere leading the team.9First Amendment Watch. FIRE’s Robert Corn-Revere on Trump’s Election Interference Suit Against Iowa Pollster FIRE describes the suit as a Strategic Lawsuit Against Public Participation, or SLAPP, aimed at imposing legal costs on critics rather than winning on the merits.10FIRE. FIRE’s Defense of Pollster J. Ann Selzer Against Donald Trump’s Lawsuit
The defense motion to dismiss makes three main arguments. First, election polling is core First Amendment activity, and American law has never recognized “fraudulent news” as a cause of action. Second, Iowa’s consumer fraud statute applies to commercial transactions involving consumer goods, not to political speech or the publication of polling data. Third, the suit lacks a “transactional nexus” — fraud typically requires a false statement made to induce someone to part with money or property, and a published poll does neither.2FIRE. Trump v. Selzer Motion and Brief in Support of Motion to Dismiss
The defense also challenges the claimed injuries. Trump and Miller-Meeks both won their races. The State of Iowa, not Miller-Meeks or her campaign, paid for her recount. Zaun’s race was not polled.2FIRE. Trump v. Selzer Motion and Brief in Support of Motion to Dismiss Corn-Revere has said publicly that unlike Trump’s other media lawsuits, this one will not be settled.9First Amendment Watch. FIRE’s Robert Corn-Revere on Trump’s Election Interference Suit Against Iowa Pollster The Register and Gannett, represented separately, likewise argue their polling and reporting are constitutionally protected; a newspaper spokesperson called the suit “without merit.”11NBC News. Trump Drops Federal Lawsuit Against Iowa Pollster, Refiles in State Court
How the Case Moved From Federal Court to State Court
Gannett removed the case from Polk County to the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Iowa shortly after filing.6Civil Rights Litigation Clearinghouse. Trump v. Selzer After Miller-Meeks and Zaun were added as co-plaintiffs, Trump’s team moved to send the case back to state court, arguing that with the new Iowa-resident plaintiffs, federal diversity jurisdiction no longer applied. On May 23, 2025, the federal judge denied that motion and ordered Trump to file an amended complaint dropping the Iowa plaintiffs.7Iowa Capital Dispatch. Trump Moves His Lawsuit Against Register and Its Pollster From Federal Court to State Court
Instead, Trump’s attorneys voluntarily dismissed the federal case on June 30, 2025, and refiled the same lawsuit in Polk County District Court that same day with all three plaintiffs intact.12Washington Post. Trump Moves Iowa Lawsuit Over Poll to State Court13The Hill. Trump Refiles Lawsuit Against Des Moines Register Poll in State Court14KCCI. Trump’s Bid to Dismiss Lawsuit Against Register Is Blocked by Judge
The federal judge blocked the voluntary dismissal on procedural grounds, citing a pending Eighth Circuit appeal, and for a period the case existed in both federal and state court at once.14KCCI. Trump’s Bid to Dismiss Lawsuit Against Register Is Blocked by Judge
The Parallel Class Action Was Dismissed With Prejudice
A separate lawsuit making nearly identical claims moved faster and reached a decision. In January 2025, Dennis Donnelly, a Register subscriber represented by the Center for American Rights, filed a class action in federal court against the newspaper, Selzer, Selzer & Company, and Gannett. He alleged fraudulent misrepresentation, negligent misrepresentation, professional malpractice, violations of the Iowa Consumer Fraud Act, and interference with the right to vote.15Reason. This Ruling Does Not Bode Well for Trump’s Attempt to Portray Journalism as Consumer Fraud
On November 6, 2025, U.S. District Judge Rebecca Goodgame Ebinger dismissed the entire case with prejudice, meaning it cannot be refiled. She held that a poll is not a false statement of fact simply because its prediction differs from the outcome, that the defendants disclosed their methodology, and that Donnelly failed to allege any non-conclusory facts showing “actual malice.” Doing so, she wrote, would require “plausibly alleg[ing] defendants sacrificed decades of work in cultivating [a] reputation for accuracy.”16Des Moines Register. Iowa Poll Lawsuit by Subscriber Dismissed15Reason. This Ruling Does Not Bode Well for Trump’s Attempt to Portray Journalism as Consumer Fraud17The Gazette. Judge Dismisses Federal Lawsuit Against Iowa Poll, Des Moines Register
Judge Ebinger wrote that the suit amounted to a “thinly veiled assault on freedom of the press” and that “a party cannot evade First Amendment scrutiny by simply labeling an action one for ‘fraud.'”15Reason. This Ruling Does Not Bode Well for Trump’s Attempt to Portray Journalism as Consumer Fraud Donnelly’s attorney said he plans to appeal, and the case is pending before the Eighth Circuit as of April 2026. The American Association for Public Opinion Research filed an amicus brief supporting the dismissal, arguing that polling is core political speech and that holding pollsters liable for statistical variation would chill the field.18AAPOR. AAPOR Amicus Brief, Donnelly v. Des Moines Register
Where the Case Stands Now
On January 31, 2026, Polk County District Judge Scott Beattie heard arguments in Trump’s state case. Trump’s attorney, Alan Ostergren, urged the court to proceed to discovery, telling the judge the poll “zipped around the world instantly and had a dramatic effect on the last few days of the presidential election.” Ostergren said the president’s own involvement in discovery would be “minimal, if at all,” possibly limited to a written interrogatory.19KCRG. Judge Hears Arguments in Trump Lawsuit Against Des Moines Register, J. Ann Selzer20Courthouse News. Trump Asks Iowa Court to Let Suit Against Des Moines Register Proceed
Gannett and the Register asked the court to pause discovery pending a forthcoming motion to dismiss. Selzer’s attorneys requested a stay until Trump leaves office, citing the challenges of deposing a sitting president, and asked the court to require Trump to post at least $300,000 as a bond to cover Selzer’s legal fees if she prevails.21Des Moines Register. Judge to Rule on Trump Lawsuit Against Des Moines Register, Iowa Poll
In February 2026, Judge Beattie ordered discovery paused pending the defendants’ motion to dismiss.22Des Moines Register. Discovery Paused in Donald Trump Lawsuit Against Des Moines Register, Pollster The case remains active in Polk County with no settlement. FIRE attorney Conor Fitzpatrick has described Trump’s claims as a “copycat” of the Donnelly class action and predicted the same result.23First Amendment Encyclopedia. Federal District Court Dismisses Class-Action Suit Against Iowa Pollster J. Ann Selzer