California’s Decarbonization Goals and Statutory Targets

California’s decarbonization goals are written into state law as three stacked deadlines: return greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, cut them at least 40% below 1990 levels by the end of 2030, and reach at least 85% below 1990 levels with net-zero emissions by 2045.¹ Sitting underneath those statewide numbers is a set of sector-specific mandates for electricity, vehicles, fuels, buildings, and waste, most of them with hard deadlines between 2026 and 2045.

The Three Statewide Emissions Targets

The 2020 goal came from the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, better known as AB 32. It required total emissions to fall back to the 1990 baseline, which the California Air Resources Board set at 427 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.² California reported meeting that goal several years early.

Senate Bill 32, signed in 2016, set the next deadline. It requires emissions to be at least 40% below the 1990 baseline by the end of 2030,³ which works out to roughly 256 million metric tons using the same baseline.

Assembly Bill 1279, the California Climate Crisis Act of 2022, sets the far target. By 2045 the state must achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions and cut total emissions at least 85% below 1990 levels.¹ The 2030 goal is not replaced; both deadlines stand independently. The law also directs the state to maintain net-negative emissions after 2045.

100% Clean Electricity by 2045

Senate Bill 100 requires 100% of retail electricity sales in California to come from renewable and zero-carbon resources by 2045.⁴ Two interim deadlines run through the Renewables Portfolio Standard: 50% of electricity from eligible renewables by the end of 2026 and 60% by the end of 2030.⁵

The two terms are not interchangeable. Renewables under the RPS mean solar, wind, geothermal, and small hydroelectric. The broader zero-carbon category in the 2045 goal also includes nuclear and large hydroelectric dams, which gives the grid firm power for hours when solar and wind drop off.

Zero-Emission Vehicle and Fuel Deadlines

Transportation is the state’s largest source of emissions, and the deadlines here are among the most concrete.

New Passenger Vehicles

Advanced Clean Cars II requires 100% of new passenger cars and light trucks sold in California to meet zero-emission standards by the 2035 model year, covering both fully electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. The phase-in started at 35% of new sales in model year 2026, rises to 68% by 2030, and reaches 100% in 2035.⁶ This is a sales mandate. Used gasoline vehicles can still be bought, sold, and driven after 2035.

Trucks and Fleets

The Advanced Clean Trucks rule took effect for the 2024 model year and requires manufacturers to sell a rising share of zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicles each year.⁷ The Advanced Clean Fleets rule sets deadlines on the buyer side. Drayage trucks at ports and railyards, last-mile delivery, and government fleets must all be zero-emission by 2035. Refuse trucks, transit buses, and utility fleets follow by 2040. The full statewide truck and bus fleet must reach 100% zero-emission by 2045, and manufacturers must reach 100% zero-emission sales for all medium- and heavy-duty vehicles by 2036.⁸

Fuel Carbon Intensity

The Low Carbon Fuel Standard sets a separate track for the liquid fuels that stay in use. Following CARB amendments approved in November 2024, the LCFS now requires a 30% reduction in carbon intensity below the 2010 baseline by 2030, up from 20%, and tightens to a 90% reduction by 2045.⁹ Low-carbon fuel producers earn credits; high-carbon producers buy them.

Building Electrification

New construction runs on a three-year cycle through the Title 24 Building Energy Efficiency Standards. The 2022 Energy Code introduced electric-ready requirements for new single-family homes: when a builder installs a gas furnace, water heater, cooktop, or clothes dryer, the home must also include dedicated 240-volt wiring and panel space for a future electric replacement. Homes with gas water heaters must include a dedicated space at least 2.5 feet wide and 7 feet tall for a future heat pump water heater, with plumbing routed through that space.¹⁰

The 2025 Energy Code applies to buildings permitted on or after January 1, 2026. It expands heat pump requirements in new residential construction and strengthens ventilation standards.¹¹ Governor Newsom has separately set an executive target of six million heat pumps installed statewide by 2030. That figure is a gubernatorial directive, not a statutory mandate.

Organic Waste Diversion

Senate Bill 1383 targets landfill methane. The 2025 deadlines: cut organic waste sent to landfills by 75% compared to 2014 levels, and recover at least 20% of edible food that would otherwise be discarded.¹² Every city and county must provide organic waste collection, and large food generators like grocery stores and restaurants must route surplus edible food to recovery organizations. CalRecycle has begun enforcement against jurisdictions that have not complied.

Cap-and-Trade as the Enforcement Backbone

The cap-and-trade program is the market mechanism holding the statewide targets in place. Authorized under AB 32 and extended through 2030 by Assembly Bill 398, it puts a hard cap on emissions from large industrial sources, power plants, and fuel distributors, and lowers that cap each year. Covered entities either reduce their own emissions or buy allowances.¹³

For 2026, the price ceiling sits at $102.52 per metric ton of CO₂ equivalent, which caps compliance costs.¹⁴ From 2026 through 2030, offset credits from approved carbon-reduction projects can cover up to 6% of a company’s compliance obligation, with no more than half coming from projects outside California.¹³

Carbon Removal and the 2045 Math

Net-zero by 2045 is not achievable through emissions cuts alone. AB 1279 directs CARB to identify policies enabling both carbon dioxide removal and carbon capture, utilization, and storage.¹ Senate Bill 905 follows up by requiring CARB to build a dedicated program to evaluate, demonstrate, and regulate those projects.¹⁵ The program is still in its early stages, with CARB soliciting public input through late 2025 on the regulatory framework.

Heavy industry, agriculture, and aviation will still produce residual emissions that current technology cannot fully eliminate. The state’s 2022 Scoping Plan pairs natural approaches like forest management and soil carbon sequestration with engineered approaches like direct air capture to offset those remaining sources and close the gap to net zero.

1
California Legislative Information. California Code HSC Division 25-5 Part 4 – 38562.2
2
California Air Resources Board. California 1990 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Level and 2020 Limit
3
California Legislative Information. California Code HSC Division 25-5 Part 4 – 38566
4
California Energy Commission. SB 100 Joint Agency Report
5
California Legislative Information. California Public Utilities Code Division 1 Part 1 Chapter 2.3 Article 16
6
California Air Resources Board. California Moves to Accelerate 100 Percent New Zero-Emission Vehicle Sales by 2035
7
California Air Resources Board. Advanced Clean Trucks Compliance and Incentives Update
8
International Council on Clean Transportation. California Advanced Clean Fleets Regulation
9
California Air Resources Board. Proposed Amendments to the Low Carbon Fuel Standard
10
California Energy Commission. 2022 Single-Family Electric Ready
11
California Energy Commission. 2025 Building Energy Efficiency Standards
12
CalRecycle. California Organic Waste Reduction
13
California Legislative Information. AB 398 California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 Market-Based Compliance Mechanisms
14
California Air Resources Board. 2026 Price Ceiling Sale Requirements and Instructions
15
California Air Resources Board. Information Solicitation to Advise Implementation of Carbon Capture Removal Utilization and Storage