Speculation about Supreme Court justices stepping down in 2026 centers on two names: Samuel Alito, 76, and Clarence Thomas, 77, the Court’s two oldest members. Neither has announced plans to leave. President Donald Trump has publicly urged both to retire so he can replace them with younger conservatives while Republicans hold the Senate, but as of mid-2026 sources close to each justice say no departure is imminent.1CBS News. Supreme Court Justices Alito, Thomas Not Retiring, Sources Say2CNN. Samuel Alito Hospital Philadelphia March
Who Is Expected to Step Down
Alito and Thomas are the only sitting justices with serious retirement speculation around them. Sources close to Thomas told CBS News that he “does not plan to step down” this year, and legal scholar John Yoo said he would be “utterly shocked” by a Thomas retirement, calling him healthy and performing at a high level.1CBS News. Supreme Court Justices Alito, Thomas Not Retiring, Sources Say People close to Alito say he has “contemplated” retirement but has not reached a decision.2CNN. Samuel Alito Hospital Philadelphia March
Alito drew brief attention in March 2026 when he fell ill at a Federalist Society dinner in Philadelphia and was treated for dehydration. He received fluids, was checked by his own physician that night, and returned to the bench the following Monday.3NBC News. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito Ill, Receives Treatment The episode was minor, but it added to speculation given his 20 years of service.4The Guardian. Samuel Alito Supreme Court Retirement Speculation
Thomas has a personal reason to stay. In May 2026 he became the second-longest-serving justice in Supreme Court history, passing John Paul Stevens. If he remains on the bench through May 2028, he would break the all-time record held by Justice William O. Douglas, who served 13,358 days.5Supreme Court Historical Society. Clarence Thomas Poised to Become the Second Longest-Serving Justice6PBS NewsHour. Clarence Thomas Is Now the Second-Longest-Serving Justice in Supreme Court History Observers describe him as energized and showing no signs of slowing.
Why Trump Is Pushing for Retirements
In an April 2026 Fox Business interview, Trump said he already has a “short list of possible replacements” and is “prepared” to act, estimating “in theory, it’s two or three” potential vacancies. His argument: replacing justices in their mid-to-late 70s with nominees in their 40s could lock in the Court’s 6-3 conservative majority for decades. He has cited Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who declined to retire during the Obama years and died in 2020, allowing Trump to fill her seat with Justice Amy Coney Barrett, as a “cautionary tale” for aging justices.7CNN. Supreme Court Trump Alito Thomas
Trump has also been candid about a second motivation. In February 2026, the Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not authorize his sweeping global tariffs. Justices Gorsuch and Barrett, both Trump appointees, joined the majority.8SCOTUSblog. A Breakdown of the Court’s Tariff Decision Trump called the justices who ruled against him “fools and lap dogs” and singled out Gorsuch and Barrett by name on social media, accusing them of disloyalty.9The New York Times. Trump Tariffs Supreme Court Reporting indicates the ruling has made him eager to appoint justices he views as more reliably aligned with his agenda.
The Senate Clock and the Midterms
The push for a retirement this year is driven by the Senate calendar. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, and because the filibuster for Supreme Court nominees was eliminated in 2017, 51 votes are enough to confirm. Recent confirmations have moved fast: Barrett in 30 days, Ketanji Brown Jackson in 41. A vacancy announced before fall could realistically be filled before the November elections.10The Conversation. If Justice Alito Resigns Before the Midterms
Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley has signaled readiness to move quickly, citing a “historic pace” of judicial confirmations in the current Congress, with circuit judges advanced nearly twice as fast as during Trump’s first term.11U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee. Grassley Opens Senate Judiciary Committee Nominations Hearing
If Democrats take the Senate in November, analysts consider it “very unlikely” they would confirm a Trump nominee, likely following the precedent Senate Republicans set when they blocked Merrick Garland in 2016.10The Conversation. If Justice Alito Resigns Before the Midterms Mid-2026 forecasts give Democrats roughly a 30 percent chance of winning the Senate, with races in Ohio, Maine, North Carolina, and Iowa likely to decide the outcome.12Strength In Numbers. 2026 Senate Simulator For any justice weighing retirement, the window before November is the safest bet for ensuring a like-minded successor.
What Happens When a Justice Steps Down
Under Article II, Section 2, the president nominates Supreme Court justices and the Senate confirms them. The sequence runs: the president selects a nominee; the Senate Judiciary Committee investigates, holds hearings, and votes on a recommendation; and the full Senate votes to confirm or reject. A simple majority is sufficient to end debate and confirm, with the vice president breaking any tie.13Georgetown Law Library. Supreme Court Nominations Research Guide Recent confirmations have taken roughly one to two months from nomination to final vote.14National Constitution Center. The Supreme Court Nomination Process
The last completed transition was Justice Stephen Breyer’s. He announced his retirement in January 2022, Jackson was confirmed in April on a 53-47 vote, and she was sworn in on June 30, 2022.15CNBC. Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson Sworn In
Retirement Is Not the Same as Resignation
Stepping down can mean two different things. A justice who retires takes “senior status”: they remain an Article III judge, continue to receive salary increases alongside active justices, and may be designated to sit on lower federal courts, though they cannot participate in Supreme Court cases. A justice who resigns separates from the judiciary entirely and performs no further judicial service.16Federal Judicial Center. Judicial Retirement Either way, the seat on the Supreme Court opens and the confirmation process begins.
Why Timing Has Become So Political
Justices picking their moment to influence who replaces them is not new, though scholars disagree on how common it is. Some empirical studies find justices are more likely to retire under an ideologically aligned president; others conclude the evidence is limited.17JSTOR. Strategic Retirement in Comparative Perspective A 2019 study by Christine Kexel Chabot found that a majority of justices since 1954 did not actually retire to a like-minded successor, often because health problems forced the timing or because centrist justices felt distant from leaders of both parties.18Utah Law Review. Strategic Retirement and Supreme Court Departures
The most prominent recent exits fit the strategic pattern. Justice Anthony Kennedy retired in 2018 and was replaced by his former clerk Brett Kavanaugh; before Kennedy stepped down, he had personally asked Trump at an April 2017 White House meeting to add Kavanaugh to the shortlist.19The Washington Post. Justice Kennedy Asked Trump to Put Kavanaugh on Supreme Court List Breyer stepped down in 2022 following a year-long public campaign from progressives and was replaced by his former clerk Jackson. The last justice to retire when the replacement was likely to come from a president of the opposite ideology was Thurgood Marshall in 1991, who left due to declining health during the George H. W. Bush administration and was succeeded by Thomas.20Brennan Center for Justice. Strategic Retirements Hurt the Supreme Court
Experts at Northeastern University have speculated the Trump administration might offer to appoint a retiring justice’s former clerk as successor, giving the departing justice a hand in shaping their legacy. The Kennedy precedent is the template.21Northeastern University News. Vacancies Supreme Court Trump
Term Limit Proposals
Since the late 1960s, the average tenure for departing justices has grown to roughly 26 years, up from about 15 years before that period.22Brennan Center for Justice. The Constitution Allows Term-Limited Supreme Court Justices That shift, combined with strategic timing, has driven reform proposals centered on 18-year terms.
In October 2023, Senators Sheldon Whitehouse, Cory Booker, Richard Blumenthal, and Alex Padilla introduced the Supreme Court Biennial Appointments and Term Limits Act, which would establish 18-year terms with a new justice appointed every two years. Justices completing their terms would hear only the small category of “original jurisdiction” cases the Constitution assigns directly to the Court.23U.S. Senate (Whitehouse). Whitehouse, Booker, Blumenthal, Padilla Introduce Supreme Court Term Limits Bill In December 2024, Senators Peter Welch and Joe Manchin introduced a constitutional amendment version, with Welch acknowledging it “won’t go anywhere this year.”24U.S. Senate (Welch). Supreme Court Term Limits Amendment Proposed President Biden endorsed the concept in July 2024, but most legal commentators believe a constitutional amendment would be required.25National Constitution Center. Can Congress Enact Supreme Court Term Limits Without a Constitutional Amendment
None of these proposals have advanced through either chamber. An amendment requires two-thirds of both the House and Senate and ratification by three-fourths of the states. The timing of a Supreme Court departure remains where the founders placed it: with the justice.