Trump’s tariffs on the European Union now sit under a framework agreed at his Turnberry golf resort in July 2025: a 15% ceiling on most EU exports to the United States in exchange for the EU dropping tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and opening its market to more American agricultural products. The deal cleared its final EU hurdle in June 2026 and is taking effect, but it leaves 50% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper untouched, a May 2026 bump on EU cars to 25% in place, and a Supreme Court ruling that gutted the original legal basis for the tariffs has forced the administration to rebuild the regime under different statutes. New threats, including a 100% tariff tied to European digital services taxes, keep arriving.
What Tariffs Apply Right Now
The core rule under the Turnberry framework is a single, all-inclusive 15% U.S. tariff ceiling on most goods from the EU. It is designed to prevent “stacking” of multiple tariff authorities on the same product. For sectors already at or above 15% under existing Most Favored Nation rates, no extra tariff applies on top.1The White House. Joint Statement on a United States-European Union Framework
A narrow set of products is treated more favorably. Aircraft and aircraft parts, generic pharmaceuticals and their precursors, and certain unavailable natural resources such as cork face only MFN tariffs, which are effectively zero or near zero.2Federal Register. Implementing Certain Tariff-Related Elements of the US-EU Framework
Three categories sit outside the 15% ceiling and matter if you are buying, selling, or shipping affected goods:
- Steel, aluminum, and copper from the EU remain at 50%. The Turnberry deal did not resolve them, and they have been a persistent source of friction. European Parliament trade committee chair Bernd Lange said the average U.S. tariff on EU steel and aluminum products was running at 26%, well above the 15% ceiling.3The White House. Fact Sheet – The United States and European Union Reach Massive Trade Deal4BBC. Trump Raises EU Auto Tariffs to 25%
- EU-made cars and trucks moved from 15% to 25% on May 1, 2026, after Trump accused the EU of not complying with the deal. Vehicles made in the United States by European companies are exempt.5The Guardian. Trump Tears Up EU Tariff Deal, Raises Import Duties on Europe
- The 15% ceiling applies to the deal’s covered sectors. A separate 100% tariff threat tied to European digital services taxes is discussed below and has not been implemented.
How the Deal Came Together
Trump’s return to office in January 2025 triggered a rapid escalation. On April 2, 2025, the administration declared a national emergency over the goods trade deficit and imposed a 20% “reciprocal” tariff on most EU goods, citing non-reciprocal trade practices and a goods trade deficit the White House characterized as above $250 billion annually.6The White House. Regulating Imports With a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices European data put the picture differently: a €199 billion EU goods surplus with the United States in 2025 against a roughly €178 billion U.S. services surplus with the EU, leaving the overall relationship within about €21 billion, or 1.3% of total trade in goods and services.7European Commission. Countries and Regions – United States
The 20% rate was halved within a week, with a July 9 negotiating deadline. In March, Trump had threatened a 200% tariff on European wines, champagnes, and spirits if the EU went ahead with a 50% tax on American whiskey; that threat was never carried out.8NPR. Trump European Alcohol Tariff On May 23, Trump threatened a 50% tariff on all EU imports starting June 1, then paused that threat to July 9. In July, letters went out announcing 30% tariffs starting August 1, and the EU consolidated retaliation lists into a single €93 billion package covering bourbon, airplanes, soybeans, yachts, cars, orange juice, and steel.9Politico. EU Readies One-Shot US Trade Retaliation Package Totaling €93B
Four days before that EU package was set to take effect, Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen struck a political agreement on July 27, 2025, at Turnberry. A formal Joint Statement followed on August 21, 2025.10European Commission. EU-US Trade Deal
What the EU Agreed to in Return
The EU pledged to eliminate all tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and provide preferential access for U.S. agricultural products including dairy, fruits, nuts, and seafood. It extended and expanded duty-free treatment for U.S. lobster through July 2030.11European Parliament. Implementation of Certain Tariff Aspects of the 2025 EU-US Framework Agreement The Commission estimated the tariff reductions would save EU importers and consumers roughly €5 billion annually.10European Commission. EU-US Trade Deal
The deal also included large headline commitments on energy and investment. The White House announced EU plans to procure $750 billion in U.S. liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear energy through 2028, purchase at least $40 billion in U.S. AI chips, and facilitate $600 billion in new European investment in U.S. strategic sectors.3The White House. Fact Sheet – The United States and European Union Reach Massive Trade Deal
The energy numbers drew skepticism from analysts, who described the $750 billion figure as aspirational and largely unenforceable, since the European Commission cannot compel private European utilities to buy U.S. energy. The EU imported about €76.9 billion in energy from the United States in 2024; hitting $750 billion over three years would require roughly tripling annual imports.12UK Trade Policy Observatory. The EU-US Trade Deal – Supply Security and Climate Strategy One analysis concluded that “the math does not add up.”13GIS Reports Online. Energy Trade Deal
The Supreme Court Ruling That Changed the Legal Basis
On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6–3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. Chief Justice Roberts, writing for the majority, noted that in nearly fifty years of IEEPA’s existence no president had used the statute to levy tariffs. The Court applied the major questions doctrine and held that the word “regulate” in IEEPA does not include the power to tax. When Congress does delegate tariff authority, Roberts wrote, it uses specific terms like “duty” and imposes strict limits on amount, duration, and scope.14Supreme Court of the United States. Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, No. 24-1287
The ruling wiped out the legal foundation for most of the tariffs imposed in 2025, including the reciprocal tariffs on the EU. Trump issued an executive order the same day terminating all IEEPA-based tariffs, and U.S. Customs and Border Protection stopped collecting them effective February 24, 2026.15White & Case. United States Terminates IEEPA-Based Tariffs Following Supreme Court Decision Refunds were not automatic; the question of how to handle them was remanded to the Court of International Trade.
The administration rebuilt its tariff regime using other statutes. As a stopgap, it invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows a temporary import surcharge of up to 15% for a maximum of 150 days, set to expire around July 27, 2026.16Hinrich Foundation. Section 301 Action on 16 Countries For a more durable replacement, the U.S. Trade Representative opened a wave of Section 301 investigations. On March 11, 2026, USTR launched investigations into 16 economies, including the EU, alleging “structural excess capacity and production in manufacturing sectors,” and the following day self-initiated an additional 60 investigations covering alleged failures to prohibit imports of goods made with forced labor.17Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. USTR Makes Findings and Proposes Action in 60 Section 301 Investigations Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in March 2026 that he expected “tariff rates will be back to their old rate within five months.”18Just Security. Delegation of Tariff Authority by Other Means
Ratification, Safeguards, and the Sunset
EU ratification of the Turnberry deal nearly collapsed in January 2026, when Trump announced tariffs starting at 10% and rising to 25% on eight European countries unless they agreed to the “Complete and Total purchase of Greenland.” Manfred Weber, leader of the European Parliament’s largest political group, said approval of the trade deal was not possible at that stage, and the Parliament’s International Trade Committee formally suspended work on it on January 21, 2026.19BBC. Trump Greenland Tariff Threat Trump dropped the tariff threats later that day at the World Economic Forum in Davos after reaching an Arctic security “framework” with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.20Al Jazeera. Trump Nixes European Tariff Threats Over Greenland
When Parliament returned to the deal, lawmakers added protections. On March 26, 2026, Parliament approved the framework with a sunset clause and a condition tying EU tariff cuts on steel and aluminum goods to reciprocal U.S. reductions.21Courthouse News. EU Parliament Backs Trump Tariff Deal With Conditions EU lawmaker Kathleen Van Brempt said, “Let’s not be naive. More Trump coercion and chaos will come, and that is exactly why we say today no free pass, no blank cheque.”
In subsequent negotiations between Parliament and the Council, the sunset was extended from March 2028 to the end of 2029, a proposed “sunrise clause” requiring prior U.S. fulfillment of pledges was dropped, and the demand that the U.S. cut steel tariffs below 15% was moved to a year-end 2026 deadline rather than a precondition for ratification.22DW. European Parliament Committee Votes to Scrap US Tariffs The European Commission kept the power to suspend the pact if the United States fails to meet its commitments, disrupts trade and investment, or threatens the essential security interests of the EU or its member states.23European Parliament. EU-US Tariffs Tensions – Trade Deal and What Could Change
Final approval came in June 2026. The Parliament’s trade committee voted 31 to 6 on June 2 to remove EU import duties on a range of U.S. goods.22DW. European Parliament Committee Votes to Scrap US Tariffs The full Parliament voted 440 to 151 with 50 abstentions on June 16.24RFI. EU Lawmakers Sign Off on Long-Awaited US Tariff Deal EU member states gave final approval on June 25, 2026, clearing the last legislative hurdle before the agreement takes effect the day after publication in the EU’s official journal.25Le Monde. EU-US Trade Deal to Take Effect Before Trump’s Deadline
The Digital Services Tax Threat
On June 26, 2026, Trump posted on Truth Social that any European country implementing a digital services tax would “immediately be met with a 100% TARIFF on any and all goods sent to the United States,” and that the tariff would “supersede Trade Deals made with the Country, whether implemented, signed, or not.”26CNN. Trump Tariff Threat The target is European taxes on revenue earned by large U.S. technology firms such as Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon in countries where they lack a physical presence. According to the Tax Foundation, roughly half of all European OECD countries have announced, proposed, or implemented such a tax.27CBS News. Trump Digital Services Tax Tariff Europe
Legal experts have questioned whether the 100% figure can be delivered quickly. With IEEPA off the table after the Supreme Court ruling, the administration would most likely need to run the issue through Section 301, which requires public notice, comment periods, and an administrative record. Legal experts told the New York Times the idea “looks like a pipe dream.”26CNN. Trump Tariff Threat USTR has pursued Section 301 cases against digital services taxes before, in France, Austria, Spain, and Italy.28The New York Times. Trump Tariffs Europe Under Section 122, meanwhile, tariffs are capped at 15% and limited to 150 days without congressional approval.29CNBC. Trump Tariff Trade Tech Tax
What It Has Meant for Prices
Research tracking prices on 350,000 products found that Trump’s 2025 tariffs raised retail prices of imported goods by an average of 6.8 percentage points and domestic goods by 4.8 percentage points relative to pre-tariff trends. The steepest increases hit clothing (17.5 points), building materials (10.5 points), and coffee and tea (10 points). About 94% of the tariff costs were passed through to import prices, with smaller pass-through to final retail prices as businesses initially absorbed costs or drew down inventory.30Tax Foundation. Trump Tariffs Raise Prices for Consumers
Goldman Sachs projected that U.S. consumers would absorb 55% of tariff costs by the end of 2025, rising to 70% by the end of 2026, with businesses absorbing 22% and foreign exporters 18%. The price increases have fallen hardest on lower- and middle-income households, which spend a larger share of income on goods. Tariffs on lumber and building materials alone added an estimated $8,900 to the cost of a new home.31Harvard Business School. US Trade Tariffs Increasing Prices
The Supreme Court’s IEEPA ruling eliminated nearly three-quarters of the tariffs imposed in 2025, offering potential relief, though the administration’s Section 301 push has offset much of the expected savings.30Tax Foundation. Trump Tariffs Raise Prices for Consumers U.S. imports from the EU in November 2025 were about $5.4 billion, or 10%, lower than a year earlier, and the trade deficit with the EU had more than halved, though deficits with other countries widened, suggesting trade was being rerouted rather than eliminated.32Bruegel. European and Chinese Exports Kept Growing Despite 2025 Trump Trade Shock
What to Watch
Three near-term flashpoints will shape whether the current tariff structure holds. The year-end 2026 deadline for the United States to bring steel and aluminum tariffs below 15% is written into the EU side of the deal; failure to meet it gives the Commission a reason to use its suspension power. The 150-day Section 122 stopgap expires around July 27, 2026, and Section 301 findings on the EU and other economies are expected to produce replacement tariffs on an accelerated timeline before then. And the digital services tax threat sits unresolved; whether it moves from Truth Social post to administrative action, and under what legal authority, will test how much of the Turnberry framework actually constrains either side.