Trump’s Gerrymandering Push: Texas, the Supreme Court, and 2026

Trump’s mid-decade redistricting push is a coordinated effort, beginning in 2025, to get Republican-controlled state legislatures to redraw their congressional maps between censuses, ahead of the 2026 midterms, so the GOP can lock in additional U.S. House seats. More than a quarter of all House districts have already been redrawn, Democratic states have retaliated with their own new maps, and two Supreme Court decisions have made the new lines much harder to challenge.

Why This Is Happening Between Censuses

Congressional districts in the United States are normally redrawn once every ten years, after the decennial census. The Supreme Court suggested in the 2006 case League of United Latin American Citizens v. Perry that federal law does not forbid mid-decade redistricting, but drawing new lines for purely partisan reasons had been rare.¹

Starting in early 2025, Trump pressed Republican officials in Texas and other states to redraw now, saying the party was entitled to more seats.² The White House lobbied directly. In Indiana, Trump spoke with state legislators and Vice President JD Vance made multiple trips to push the idea.³ In South Carolina, Trump placed at least two calls to the Republican state Senate majority leader and phoned into a private meeting of Republican senators.⁴

Texas Set the Template

Texas moved first. In the summer of 2025, the legislature redrew the state’s congressional districts with the stated goal of adding five Republican seats, and Governor Greg Abbott signed the new map (H.B. 4, PlanC2333) on August 29, 2025.⁵⁶

The U.S. Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division identified four districts in the new map, all with non-white majorities and three of them in Houston, as “unconstitutional racial gerrymanders.” Rep. Al Green warned that if similar strategies spread, roughly 20 African American and 10 Latino members of Congress could lose their seats nationwide.⁷

A federal district court in El Paso enjoined the map on November 18, 2025. The Supreme Court stayed that order on December 4 in a brief unsigned decision, citing a “presumption of legislative good faith” and concerns about intervening in an “active primary campaign.” The Texas map is in effect for 2026, though the Court’s order is preliminary and does not approve the map for later elections.⁷

Where Republican Redraws Have Taken Hold

Texas’s success triggered what analysts described as a “race to the bottom,” and new congressional districts were in place in at least eight states by mid-2026.⁸

In Missouri, Governor Mike Kehoe signed a new map on September 28, 2025. The Missouri Supreme Court upheld it 4-3 on March 24, 2026, ruling that the state constitution does not forbid mid-decade redistricting. A referendum effort is underway but tied up in litigation over the ballot summary.⁹¹⁰

North Carolina’s General Assembly enacted new maps on October 22, 2025, adjusting Congressional Districts 1 and 3 to add one Republican seat and producing an expected 11-3 GOP delegation. The map specifically added Republican voters to the district of Democratic Rep. Don Davis. A racial-gerrymandering challenge from plaintiffs including the NC NAACP was voluntarily dismissed in January 2026 after a three-judge panel signaled it was unlikely to succeed.¹¹¹²

Florida followed in the spring of 2026. Governor Ron DeSantis called a special session, the legislature passed HB 1D largely along party lines, and DeSantis signed it on May 4, 2026. His office projected a net gain of three or four Republican seats, with Democratic incumbents including Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz targeted. The Equal Ground Education Fund sued the same day under Florida’s Fair Districts Amendments, and a Florida judge declined to throw the map out in late May.¹³¹⁴

Tennessee’s legislature passed a new map on May 7, 2026 after a special session called by Governor Bill Lee. The plan splits the state’s sole majority-Black congressional district, a Memphis-based seat held by Rep. Steve Cohen, into three districts that stretch more than 200 miles into rural areas. The NAACP sued in federal court, and a three-judge state panel upheld the plan on May 26, finding the legislature had authority to repeal a 50-year-old state law barring mid-decade redistricting.¹⁵¹⁶

Where the Push Has Stalled

Not every Republican attempt has gone through. In Alabama, a three-judge federal panel blocked a map that would have eliminated one of the state’s two districts where Black voters had elected a Democrat, finding it was “tainted by intentional race-based discrimination.” The Supreme Court stayed that ruling on June 2, 2026, allowing Alabama to use the disputed map for 2026. Justice Sonia Sotomayor’s dissent said the map “intentionally discriminates against Black Alabamians” and was adopted in “defiance of a prior court order.”¹⁷¹⁸

In South Carolina, the state House passed a plan to eliminate Rep. James Clyburn’s majority-Black district, but the Senate rejected it on May 26, 2026, the same day early voting began for the June primary and after nearly 45,000 ballots had been cast. Republican Sen. Richard Cash said, “Neither my conscience nor my common sense will allow me to stop an election that is already underway.” The existing map stays in place, though South Carolina is expected to return to the issue.⁴¹⁹

Indiana never got there. Despite a special session called by Governor Mike Braun and heavy White House lobbying, Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray announced in November 2025 that there were “not enough votes to move that idea forward.”³

Democratic States Have Fought Back

California’s Democratic-led legislature drew a new congressional map replacing one adopted by the state’s independent redistricting commission. Voters approved it as Proposition 50 on November 4, 2025. The map is projected to add up to five Democratic seats and could let Democrats win as many as 48 of 52 House seats. The Trump administration called it an “unconstitutional racial gerrymander,” but the Supreme Court allowed it to proceed.²⁰²¹

Virginia’s attempt did not survive. Democratic legislators advanced a constitutional amendment to allow mid-decade redistricting; the General Assembly passed a new map, Governor Abigail Spanberger signed it, and voters approved the amendment on April 21, 2026. Democrats were favored to flip four House seats. On May 8, 2026, the Supreme Court of Virginia overturned the amendment, ruling the legislative procedures used to advance it violated the state constitution. The existing map stays in effect.²²

The Supreme Court Decision That Changed the Rules

The most consequential legal development came on April 29, 2026, when the Supreme Court decided Louisiana v. Callais. Legal scholars say the ruling fundamentally weakened Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.²³

The case concerned Louisiana’s 2024 congressional map, which had created a second majority-Black district in response to an earlier court order. Non-Black voters challenged the map as a racial gerrymander. In a 6-3 opinion by Justice Samuel Alito, the Court struck it down, holding that the Voting Rights Act did not require the additional district and that Louisiana therefore lacked a compelling interest to use race in drawing the lines.²³

The decision rewrote the framework for VRA map challenges. Plaintiffs now must prove racial bloc voting cannot be explained by partisan affiliation, forcing them to disentangle race from party in states where the two closely track. Illustrative maps submitted by challengers must satisfy all of a state’s legitimate redistricting goals, including specified partisan aims and incumbent protection. And the “totality of circumstances” analysis now focuses on present-day intentional discrimination, giving far less weight to historical patterns.²⁴

Justice Elena Kagan, joined by Justices Sotomayor and Jackson, wrote in dissent that the ruling renders Section 2 “all but a dead letter.” Legal experts have described the new standards as making Section 2 challenges “extremely difficult, if not impossible” in Southern states.²³²⁴

The practical fallout was quick. Governor Jeff Landry declared a state of emergency, suspended Louisiana’s May 16 congressional primary after more than 42,000 absentee ballots had already been cast, and convened the legislature. On May 29, 2026, he signed Senate Bill 121, restoring the 2022 configuration of five Republican-leaning seats and one majority-Black district anchored in New Orleans. The second majority-Black district, won by Cleo Fields in 2024, is gone. Trump praised the Callais ruling as a “BIG WIN.”²⁵²¹

What It Means for Minority Representation

The combined effect of the state-level redraws and Callais has been a sharp erosion of minority voting power. Advocates and legal experts project the “largest-ever drop in Black representation in Congress,” concentrated in the South. Five or more majority-minority districts are expected to be eliminated nationwide by the 2026 election, with Alabama, Tennessee, and Mississippi holding or having held special sessions aimed at dismantling such seats. Georgia is expected to follow before 2028.²⁶⁸

State-level voting rights laws are being tested too. The conservative Public Interest Legal Foundation filed a federal lawsuit challenging the Illinois Voting Rights Act of 2011, arguing it unconstitutionally requires using race in redistricting, and the Trump administration’s principal deputy assistant attorney general for civil rights has publicly questioned the effectiveness of state voting rights laws.²⁶

Where Challengers Can and Cannot Go

With the Supreme Court repeatedly letting disputed maps proceed, state supreme courts have become the main forum for gerrymandering challenges. At least 10 state high courts have claimed authority to decide partisan gerrymandering cases, often under state constitutional provisions on free and fair elections or equal protection. Four, including Missouri’s, have ruled they cannot hear partisan gerrymandering claims at all.²⁷

Federal partisan-gerrymandering challenges remain foreclosed under the Court’s 2019 decision in Rucho v. Common Cause, which held such claims present non-justiciable “political questions.” Election law expert Richard Hasen said the Alabama stay “closed the door on intentional discrimination claims” and limits federal courts’ power to intervene in late-breaking redistricting changes before an election.²⁸⁵

What It Means for the 2026 House

An internal House Republican assessment concluded the redraws created 10 additional red-leaning seats. Republican strategists believe they could win as many as 14 additional seats across Texas, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Tennessee. Democrats estimate potential gains of up to six seats from new districts in California and Utah.²⁹³⁰

Forecasting models from Sabato’s Crystal Ball suggest the new maps give the GOP a clear structural advantage but may only reduce projected Democratic gains by about five seats. Democrats need only a handful of pickups to win the House, and the president’s party historically loses seats at midterms. Under the model, Republicans would need to tie or lead on the generic ballot to have a reasonable chance of holding their majority.³¹

There is also the “dummymander” risk: a party overreaches by spreading its voters too thin across multiple districts, producing narrow margins that collapse in a wave election. That risk is higher in a cycle where midterm history already cuts against the party in the White House.⁸

What Comes After 2026

States including Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina are expected to revisit redistricting for future cycles, and Maryland and New York have taken or are considering redistricting actions of their own. The National Democratic Redistricting Committee, led by former Attorney General Eric Holder, has outlined a strategy covering more than 25 states, combining litigation, “responsive redistricting” in Democratic states, and voter mobilization, along with calls for federal voting rights legislation and Supreme Court reform.³² Michigan, New Jersey, and Delaware are among the states considering state-level voting rights acts, though such laws typically only apply to state and local elections.²⁶

Running alongside the map fight is a separate Trump administration effort to change how the Census Bureau collects data, including a proposed citizenship question for the 2030 field test and pressure to draw districts based on “eligible voters” rather than total population. That effort has not yet changed how 2026 districts are drawn, but researchers warn a shift to citizen-based redistricting layered on top of an already-gerrymandered map would amplify the gerrymander’s effect.³³³⁴

More than 25 percent of all congressional seats have already been redrawn mid-decade. Experts warn that continuous, cycle-by-cycle redistricting could become a permanent feature of American politics, deepening polarization and setting up recurring fights over House control.⁸³⁵

1
NCSL. Mid-Decade Redistricting
2
PBS NewsHour. Trump Wants to Change How the Census Bureau Collects Data
3
The Spokesman-Review. Republican Efforts to Redraw Indiana’s Congressional Map
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PBS NewsHour. South Carolina Senate Rejects Trump’s Push to Redraw Congressional Maps
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SCOTUSblog. The Gerrymandering Mess
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The Missouri Times. Missouri Supreme Court Upholds Constitutionality of Mid-Decade Redistricting
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Loyola Law School. People Not Politicians v. Hoskins II
11
Carolina Journal. Judges Permit Challenge to NC Congressional Map in Existing Lawsuits
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Courthouse News Service. North Carolina Voters Back Out of Case Challenging Congressional Map
13
Florida Phoenix. DeSantis Signs Legislation Making New Congressional Map Official
14
Politico. Florida Legislature Redistricting Map
15
NBC News. Tennessee Republicans Pass Map Splitting State’s Lone Majority-Black District
16
WPLN. Special Session 2026
17
Al Jazeera. Trump-Led Push to Redraw Congress Maps Faces Setbacks in Southern States
18
SCOTUSblog. Supreme Court Permits Alabama to Use Congressional Map Struck by Lower Court as Racially Discriminatory
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The New York Times. South Carolina Redistricting Map
20
The Indiana Lawyer. What’s Next in the National Redistricting Fight After California Approved a New US House Map
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Al Jazeera. Has the US Supreme Court Weakened the Voting Rights Act and How
22
VPAP. Redistricting 2026
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SCOTUSblog. In Major Voting Rights Act Case, Supreme Court Strikes Down Redistricting Map Challenged as Racial Gerrymander
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Harvard Kennedy School. What Louisiana v. Callais Means for the Voting Rights Act
25
JURIST. Louisiana Approves New Congressional Map Dismantling Majority-Black District
26
NPR. Supreme Court Voting Rights Act State Redistricting
27
Stateline. As Supreme Court Pulls Back on Gerrymandering, State Courts May Decide Fate of Maps
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NPR. Supreme Court Alabama Redistricting
29
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30
PBS NewsHour. A State-by-State Guide to the Redistricting Fight
31
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NDRC. NDRC Charts Path Forward to Defeat Trump’s National Gerrymandering Crisis
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NPR. US Census Citizenship Question Redistricting
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Urban Institute. Assessing Census Citizenship Question’s Potential Effects on Congressional Representation
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Council on Foreign Relations. Gerrymandering, the Supreme Court, and the 2026 Midterm Elections