XRP After the SEC Lawsuit: ETFs, RLUSD, and 2026 Price Outlook

XRP after the SEC lawsuit sits in a very different place than it did during the four-year case: the litigation ended in a 2025 settlement, federal regulators have formally classified XRP as a “digital commodity,” spot XRP exchange-traded funds are trading in the United States, and Ripple’s payments business has expanded well past where it stood when the complaint was filed. Price forecasts for 2026 remain wide, and one significant piece of legislation is still pending.

How the SEC Case Ended

The Securities and Exchange Commission sued Ripple Labs in December 2020, alleging a $1.3 billion unregistered securities offering. In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres issued a split summary judgment: Ripple’s institutional sales of XRP were unregistered investment contracts, but XRP itself was not a security, and programmatic sales to retail buyers on exchanges did not violate securities law.1United States District Court, Southern District of New York. SEC v. Ripple Labs Summary Judgment Order A final judgment in August 2024 ordered Ripple to pay a $125,035,150 civil penalty and imposed a permanent injunction.2Fenwick. SEC v. Ripple Decision Makes Waves in Digital Assets Enforcement

Both sides appealed, then settled. On May 8, 2025, the SEC announced that $50 million of the penalty would be paid to the agency and $75 million returned to Ripple from escrow. The parties agreed to ask the district court to dissolve the injunction and to dismiss their appeals.3SEC.gov. Litigation Release No. 26306 Neither party moved to vacate Torres’s summary judgment ruling, so its holdings about institutional versus retail sales remain intact as district court precedent. Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw dissented, calling the terms a “programmatic disassembly of the SEC’s crypto enforcement program.”4SEC.gov. Statement on Ripple Settlement A joint stipulation of dismissal was filed in the Second Circuit on August 7, 2025, formally ending the case.5SEC.gov. Litigation Release No. 26369

The Ripple settlement was part of a broader shift. Under Chairman Paul Atkins, confirmed in April 2025, the SEC dropped or dismissed enforcement actions against seven other crypto firms between February and May 2025, including cases against Coinbase, Binance, and Consensys, describing the shift as a “necessary course correction” away from “regulation by enforcement.”6SEC.gov. SEC Fiscal Year 2025 Enforcement Results A January 2025 executive order on digital financial technology had already directed federal agencies to reconsider existing crypto rules.7The White House. Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology

XRP Is Now Classified as a Digital Commodity

On March 17, 2026, the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission jointly issued a formal interpretation classifying XRP as a “digital commodity.” Published in the Federal Register as 91 FR 13714 and effective March 23, 2026, it is binding agency action rather than informal staff guidance.8SEC.gov. Application of Federal Securities Laws to Certain Types of Crypto Assets The interpretation defines a digital commodity as a crypto asset whose value “stems mainly from the utility of its underlying network and the forces of market supply and demand” rather than from “expected profits tied to the efforts of a central management team.”9SEC.gov. SEC Clarifies Application of Federal Securities Laws to Crypto Assets

XRP is named alongside Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana. The classification gives the CFTC clear jurisdiction over XRP spot markets and removes the regulatory objection that had blocked institutional products for years.8SEC.gov. Application of Federal Securities Laws to Certain Types of Crypto Assets

One boundary worth knowing. The interpretation does not immunize XRP from every future securities question. It warns that any non-security crypto asset can still be offered and sold as part of an investment contract under the Howey test, though the asset itself does not become a security in the process.8SEC.gov. Application of Federal Securities Laws to Certain Types of Crypto Assets

Legislation would put the classification into statute. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633), sponsored by Representative French Hill, passed the House on July 17, 2025, and has been under Senate Banking Committee consideration, which published an updated text on June 1, 2026. Tracking estimates give it roughly a 30% chance of enactment.10GovTrack. H.R. 3633: Digital Asset Market Clarity Act

Spot XRP ETFs and Institutional Buying

Spot XRP ETFs began trading in the United States in late 2025. REX-Osprey’s XRPR launched on September 18, 2025, followed by Canary Capital’s XRPC on Nasdaq (November 13), Bitwise (November 20), Grayscale’s GXRP on NYSE Arca (November 24), Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ, and 21Shares’ TOXR. As of early June 2026, seven spot XRP ETFs hold a combined $1.53 billion in assets under management and roughly 773 million XRP tokens in custody.11Ripple. XRP ETFs: The Institutional Era Has Begun

Goldman Sachs disclosed a $153.8 million XRP ETF position in its Q4 2025 13F filing, making it the largest institutional holder. Other disclosed positions include Millennium Management at $23 million, Citadel Advisors at $4.5 million, plus Jane Street and Flow Traders. The top 30 institutional investors hold over $211 million in shares, but Bloomberg Intelligence estimates roughly 84% of ETF assets remain in retail hands.12Forbes. Goldman Sachs Revealed as Top XRP ETF Holder A Coinbase and EY-Parthenon survey of 351 institutional investors found 18% held XRP as of January 2026, with 25% planning to add it during the year.13Yahoo Finance. XRP News: 25 Institutions Plan to Add XRP

ETF flows have cooled. Net inflows ran near $200 million per week at launch, then turned to net outflows of $31 million in March 2026.13Yahoo Finance. XRP News: 25 Institutions Plan to Add XRP CME-listed XRP futures, launched in May 2025, reached $1 billion in open interest by late August 2025, faster than any previous CME crypto contract.14Yahoo Finance. XRP CME Futures Hit Record

Payments Adoption and RLUSD

Ripple’s core business, using XRP as a bridge asset for cross-border payments through its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service, has expanded since the case ended. ODL has grown from three payout markets in 2018 to nearly 40 in 2026, and roughly 40% of the 30-plus Ripple-connected banks within the SWIFT retail payments framework now use ODL. Ripple Payments has processed over $100 billion in cumulative volume as of March 2026, with primary corridors including USD-to-PHP, USD-to-MXN, and AED-to-INR.15MEXC. XRP Real-World Utility and ODL Growth

Institutional partners include BBVA, DBS Bank, Banco Rendimento, IndusInd Bank, and Saudi Awwal Bank, along with fintechs like Tranglo and Nium.16Ripple. Cross-Border Payments SBI Remit in Japan uses XRP for remittances to the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia.17TradingView (Cointelegraph). How SWIFT’s Blockchain Could Challenge Ripple’s Grip on Payments Ripple holds more than 75 active money-transmitter and payments licenses globally, with applications pending in the EU and UK.

Ripple’s dollar-pegged stablecoin, RLUSD, has become part of the strategy. Issued under a New York Department of Financial Services trust company charter with BNY Mellon as primary custodian, RLUSD had a circulating supply worth approximately $1.70 billion as of May 2026, backed by reserves of $1.85 billion.18CoinStats. Fundamental Analysis: Ripple USD It is listed on Binance (since January 21, 2026), OKX, Kraken, Bitstamp, Bybit, and more than a dozen other platforms, and in June 2025 the Dubai Financial Services Authority approved RLUSD for use within the Dubai International Financial Centre.19Ripple. RLUSD Stablecoin DFSA Approval A May 2026 pilot with Ondo Finance, JPMorgan’s Kinexys, and Mastercard completed the first cross-border, cross-bank redemption of a tokenized U.S. Treasury fund on the XRP Ledger, with the asset leg settling in under five seconds.20PR Newswire. Ondo, Kinexys by J.P. Morgan, Mastercard, and Ripple Complete First Cross-Border Tokenized Treasury Redemption Tokenized real-world assets on the XRP Ledger have reached a total value exceeding $3 billion.21CoinDesk. XRP Ledger’s New Proposal Blocks Flash Loan Attacks

Price Outlook for 2026

As of June 16, 2026, XRP trades at approximately $1.22 and ranks fifth by market capitalization at roughly $75.7 billion. Its all-time high of $3.65 was reached on July 18, 2025, during the post-settlement run.22CoinGecko. XRP Price and Market Data

Analyst forecasts for the rest of 2026 sit in a wide range:

Longer-term projections for 2030 range from $5.80 in a base case to over $26 in a bull scenario, contingent on the XRP Ledger becoming a core piece of global financial infrastructure.23Bitcoin Foundation. XRP Price Prediction 2026: Expert Analysis and Market Forecast

Where Ripple Labs Stands

Ripple Labs remains a private company. In November 2025, it completed a share sale at a $40 billion valuation with participation from Citadel Securities and Fortress. As of January 2026, no IPO was on the calendar, though analysts have noted a public listing could come as early as 2026 if the company wants the flexibility for acquisitions that public equity would provide.24Bloomberg. Ripple Touts November Fundraise, No Plans for IPO